One of the biggest mysteries this season for NFL betting has revolved around the number of times the New York Jets have been favored in games.
The Jets have only been underdogs in five games, one more than the number of wins they have heading into the final three weeks of their disappointing season. But most agree the oddsmakers got it right this week because the Jets are 3.5-point underdogs at home against the Los Angeles Rams.
I mentioned to Mike Palm, the vice president of operations at the Circa, that the Jets were finally home dogs, a first since Aaron Rodgers & Co. were spotted 1.5 points against the Buffalo Bills in Week 6, also known as the first game without the fired Robert Saleh—when dog poop really began to hit the fan for Gang Green.
Palm was quick to remind me why the Jets have been favored in most games this season as if he was tired of answering this question. It’s really quite simple. Public bettors love to bet on Rodgers and the Jets, shifting the odds to make them the favorites, which has benefited the sportsbooks in Las Vegas. The Jets are 5–9 against the spread this season.
“Gil, the biggest darling the whole year has still been the Jets,” Palm says. “Every week, every week, no matter how bad they played, they lost all these games, there would be money on the Jets. I think this line at three is a testament to how people feel about the Rams and how dangerous the Rams might be.”
It’s understandable that public bettors haven’t given up on Rodgers, especially considering who the Jets have played the past seven weeks. New York faced Jacksonville, Miami, Seattle, Indianapolis, Arizona, Houston, and New England. It was favored in six of those seven games. Those were all winnable games against losing teams or lower-level playoff contenders with plenty of concerns.
But I won’t give public bettors a total pass here, because the Jets have constantly reminded us for weeks they’re a dysfunctional franchise with bad coaching and an over-the-hill quarterback. There was nothing about the Jets that said, “Support us with your money at the sportsbooks.” Not even a vintage performance from Rodgers and Davante Adams last week—against the freaking Jacksonville Jaguars—will get me to bet on the Jets.
Public bettors should have treated their past seven games as Jets or pass, and pass should have been the answer most of the time. Now if I was being forced to bet on the Jets against the spread this week, I’d take Rodgers and the 3.5 points. (Please no one force me to bet on this game.) I agree that the Rams are dangerous, but this Week 16 matchup gives trap game vibes or a win-in-ugly-fashion game.
Los Angeles isn’t as good on the road, scoring 12 points against the San Francisco 49ers last week. The Rams also had ugly road wins vs. the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots in the past month. Then again, the Rams covered in all three games.
I can’t get over the bad vibes, though. Making this once again Jets or pass and I’m definitely passing because no one is forcing me to bet on this game.
Betting on the Jets every week might be sillier than the people who rushed to bet on the Houston Texans when they were briefly -2.5 favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Luckily, those people don’t exist—I think.
The line for that game drastically changed because Patrick Mahomes, who’s dealing with an ankle injury, was a full participant to start the week, not because bettors really liked the Texans this week. The Chiefs quickly became 2.5-point favorites and it didn’t take long for the public to increase the line to -3 once the injury report revealed on Tuesday that Mahomes practiced fully. Most sportsbooks had it as high as Chiefs -3.5 as of Wednesday evening.
“We thought Mahomes wasn’t going to play,” Palm says. “The Texans got up to as high as a 2.5-point favorite at Arrowhead Stadium. Obviously, that shocked a lot of people to look at that number and think how that could be for a team that’s only lost one game all year that they would be an underdog at home.”
Don’t worry about Mahomes. He usually finds a way to play. I’m comfortable laying the points with the Chiefs. The Texans have struggled to score points most of the season and now have to face a Chiefs defense that has returned to their dominant ways after a rocky November.
But looking ahead to Wednesday’s Christmas slate, the Circa has the Pittsburgh Steelers as -2 home favorites against the Chiefs. That line might be surprising, but that’s a tough road trip for the Chiefs on a short week with a hobbled star quarterback. I would wait to see if the line shifts for the Steelers to become home dogs. I would definitely be interested in that.
In the other Christmas matchup, the Baltimore Ravens are -2 favorites on the road against the Texans, according to the Circa. I wouldn’t be so quick to lay the points with the Ravens for their next two games, including in Saturday’s home matchup against the Steelers. But more on that AFC North battle below.
Manzano’s NFL Week 16 Betting Tips
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Stick with the trend: Lions (-6.5) at Bears
Palm mentioned that Derek Stevens, the owner of Circa Sports and diehard Lions fans, has kept an upbeat spirit despite Detroit's loss against the Buffalo Bills last week and the many injuries to key players.
That’s the right attitude to have because things could be worse. Fortunately for Stevens and the other Lions fans at the Circa, they aren’t Chicago Bears fans. Now that’s a grim situation. The Lions will bounce back and pummel the Bears this week.
“They’re the walking wounded on defense,” Palm says. “[Aidan] Hutchinson going down for the year was one thing, but now the whole secondary is getting banged up. But they’re eternal optimists around here. They were all talking about how they needed that loss. They didn’t want to have 13 or 15 straight wins going into the playoffs, so they always find a positive spin on it.”
Enticing Bet: 49ers (+1) at Dolphins
Expect the 49ers to take out all of their frustrations on the Miami Dolphins. It’s a lost season for the star-studded 49ers, but they can at least force Tua Tagovailoa into more turnovers. He had four during last week’s loss vs. the Texans.
Moneyline Dog: Giants (+330) at Falcons
I wouldn’t advise following me here. This is living dangerously. The New York Giants are very bad, but I’ll take a chance on them keeping it close against a rookie quarterback making his regular-season debut. The Atlanta Falcons benched Kirk Cousins, who has struggled for weeks, in favor of Michael Penix Jr., the No. 8 pick in April’s draft.
A better bet would be taking the Giants at +8.5, which could receive some sharp money, according to Palm. But the Circa would rather have an outright dog victory here from New York.
“If the Giants can beat the Falcons, that would be very good, because people are going to be excited that Penix is playing,” Palm says. “Cousins has really struggled the last six weeks and they really won that game by not letting him pass the ball on Monday night against the Raiders. You’re going to see a lot of people excited for the Falcons this week. They’ll put them in moneyline parlays. I think that would be the biggest single upset that would help us.”
Not So Risky: Bengals (-7.5) vs. Browns
Joe Burrow was annoyed that the Cincinnati Bengals didn’t beat the Tennessee Titans by a lot more last week. I’ll take an angry Burrow this week vs. the struggling Cleveland Browns. Bengals covering against bad teams has hit the past two weeks against the Dallas Cowboys and Titans.
Stay Away: Steelers (+6) at Ravens
This matchup is Steelers or pass for me and I can’t bring myself to support Mike Tomlin’s team, which could be without wide receiver George Pickens and T.J. Watt, two star players dealing with injuries. And there’s no way I’m going to lay six points on the Ravens, who have struggled to beat the Steelers in the Lamar Jackson era. I’ll be passing here.
“I don’t know if you could put a lot of judgment on the Steelers on the game in Philadelphia last week,” Palm says. “The Eagles are really good. The Eagles might be the best team in football.
“These games in the AFC North, you can almost throw out the records. Pittsburgh does a great job defending Lamar. I wouldn’t want to lay six in these rivalry games, but I would think Baltimore would get the upper hand here and tie up the race atop the AFC North.”
Parlay: Jets (+3.5) vs. Rams; Buccaneers (-4) at Cowboys; Panthers (+4.5) vs. Cardinals
I’m pretty convinced this parlay won’t hit, so I’ll have some fun here. Remember those Jets I bashed earlier? I’ll take the points here on a potential trap game for the Rams. I was impressed with how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers dismantled the Los Angeles Chargers last week. I’m not convinced the Cowboys have turned a corner just because they beat the Carolina Panthers, everyone’s favorite favorite last week. But I’ll take Carolina to cover at home vs. an inconsistent Arizona Cardinals squad.
Survivor Pool Christmas Week edition: Seahawks (-122) at Bears
Palm said only five entries have been eliminated from the Circa survivor contest in the past month, bringing the total to 50 entries heading into Week 16. That’s a big change from the chaos that occurred during the first five weeks of the season when many underdogs won outright, sending hundreds of entries up in flames.
But the remaining contestants will have a challenge next week because the two Christmas games and the Thursday night matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Bears count as one week. As of this week, only seven entries have the Chiefs available, according to Palm. Twenty-seven have the Steelers available, and only 12 entries can use the Ravens. Only three are able to use the Texans, not that many would be eager to use them vs. the Ravens.
But 21 of the remaining 50 entries have the Seahawks available. Expect most of those entries to use Geno Smith and the Seahawks next week against the very bad Bears. In case you’re wondering, 31 entries can use the Bears—that number probably won’t change any time soon.
Best Over/Under Total: Chiefs-Texans (under 42, -110)
A hobbled Mahomes against a stout Texans’ defense could force the Chiefs to eat up the clock and lean on the running game. On the other side, C.J. Stroud has struggled for most of his second season and will have the challenge of facing Chris Jones & Co. at Arrowhead Stadium.
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