The separation between the good teams and bad teams showed last week when the NFL favorites went 12–2 against the spread, giving public bettors plenty to celebrate at the Las Vegas sportsbooks.
“The good teams are getting better,” says Chuck Esposito, the race and sports director for Station Casinos. “They’ve had a few weeks under their belt, and without that preseason, you see it happen after those first four weeks. These teams are getting more continuity and playing better together as a team.”
NFL bettors might be backing the heavy favorites again because a few bad teams got worse this week, with the Las Vegas Raiders trading Davante Adams to the New York Jets and the Cleveland Browns sending Amari Cooper to the Buffalo Bills.
But don’t expect another 12 wins for the favorites against the spread because there are a handful of intriguing games with tight lines for the NFL Week 7 slate.
The Super Bowl rematch between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs is essentially a pick’em, with the home team 49ers being a -1.5 favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Minnesota Vikings are hosting the Detroit Lions as -1.5 favorites at FanDuel for their NFC North showdown with first place on the line.
Esposito said early money favored the 49ers and Vikings as of Wednesday, but mentioned he wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs and Lions get the majority of the money by the end of the week.
“A little bit of the early money is on the 49ers, but [Chiefs coach] Andy Reid is one of the best coming off a bye week,” Esposito says. “It’s a repeat of the Super Bowl, where the sharps clearly backed the 49ers, but the public clearly backed the Chiefs. I can see that again.”
Esposito said the Lions’ Super Bowl odds didn’t change much after the season-ending leg injury to Aidan Hutchinson because he’s expecting the team to trade for a standout edge rusher before the Nov. 5 trade deadline.
The Super Bowl odds also didn’t change for the Jets after they reunited Aaron Rodgers with Davante Adams, but the line did shift for Sunday’s game against the Pittsburgh Steelers after the blockbuster trade was announced. Pittsburgh went from -1.5 home favorites to +2 underdogs after the Adams trade. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin also mentioned that Russell Wilson is a candidate to replace Justin Fields as the starting quarterback.
Perhaps it’s best to avoid the close games and focus on the games between good teams and bad teams, even ones with sizable point spreads. The Bills are -8.5 favorites at FanDuel against the one-win Tennessee Titans. Favorites of seven points or more haven’t hit frequently this season, including last week when the favorites dominated, because the Browns covered as eight-point underdogs during the 20–16 loss against the Philadelphia Eagles.
But laying the points might be worth the risk because the Bills now have Cooper and are facing a struggling Titans offense that continues to start Will Levis, one of the worst quarterbacks in the league this season. Tennessee also hasn’t shown much chemistry, especially between Levis and wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who recently expressed his frustrations about the lack of targets.
“It’s a really high number,” Esposito says, “but this Titans team … there are a lot of issues with this team. It’s a huge number and that’s a big number in the NFL.”
As for a few dogs to support, Esposito mentioned that he’s seen some sharp money on the Seattle Seahawks (+3) traveling to the Atlanta Falcons, and the Browns (+5.5) hosting the Cincinnati Bengals.
It’s tough to support the Seahawks after how poorly they played as home dogs vs. the 49ers on last week. The Browns showed some pride last week in Philadelphia, but this team might have waved the white flag with the Cooper trade. Esposito and other bookmakers hope dogs bark a little more than last week.
“Really good weekend for the guests, celebrating how well they did,” Esposito says. “This week again, seeing some action similar [for the favorites] on some of the games this week.”
Manzano’s NFL Week 7 Betting Tips
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Buck the Trend: Chiefs (+1.5) at 49ers
Esposito mentioned the 49ers have won 17 out of their past 21 home games, a notable stat for a matchup that’s essentially a pick’em. This line has shifted a bit with the Chiefs now being spotted at +1.5 at most sportsbooks, but it might go back down to +1 if the public backs Kansas City, like Esposito expects them to do by the end of the week.
I rather stick to the trend of Reid having his team prepared after bye weeks. Reid is 21–4 in his head coaching career after a bye week. And let’s not forget that the 49ers recently lost at home to the Arizona Cardinals. Go with the better team this season and that’s been the 5–0 Chiefs, who are well-rested.
Enticing Bet: Buccaneers (+3.5) vs. Ravens
Full disclosure here, I’ve failed many times picking against the Ravens, but I’m enticed here because the Buccaneers are a very good team and they’re getting many points for being a home team with a 4–2 record and quality wins against the Lions and Eagles this season.
Sure, the Ravens could make me look foolish again, but backing the Buccaneers has gone well for me multiple times this season. This could be a fun shootout between the offenses of Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield.
Moneyline Dog: Texans (+124) at Packers
The Houston Texans are a different team when Joe Mixon is on the field. Houston’s two best performances of the season have come with a healthy Mixon, who knifed through the New England Patriots’ defense last week and did the same in the season opener against the Indianapolis Colts.
Now those teams aren’t as good as the Packers, but if Mixon, who missed three consecutive games due to an ankle injury, can move the chains for lengthy drives, perhaps that’s the key to not allowing Jordan Love and his offense to get into a rhythm.
This won’t be an easy dog bet, but the Texans are leading the AFC South for a reason. C.J. Stroud & Co. are worth the risk this week.
Not So Risky: Falcons (-3) vs. Seahawks
I’m going against the sharps here. The Falcons keep getting better on a weekly basis and they might have finally unlocked running back Bijan Robinson, who rushed for 95 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Carolina Panthers.
The reeling Seahawks, who allow 144.7 rushing yards per game, have been dealing with injuries on the defensive front during their three-game losing streak. Kirk Cousins and his many weapons could have a dynamic day against the Seahawks’ defense.
Stay Away: Jets (-1.5) at Steelers
There are too many unknowns here for me, from the Steelers likely starting Russell Wilson to the Jets trying to get Adams up to speed at a rapid pace. Also, I can’t trust this Jets’ offensive line against T.J. Watt. And I don’t see myself backing a Wilson-led Steelers squad. I’m staying away from thismatchup.
“Picking up Adams really helps that offense and that’s been reflective in the line this week, as there was a total flip from the Steelers being the favorites to the Jets now the favorites,” Esposito says. “I think it’s also a product of the Steelers a little bit. The fact that they don’t generate a whole lot of offense, although they’re 4–2. Justin Fields, some of the same issues that hurt him with the Bears have resurfaced a little bit in Pittsburgh and that’s probably the reason why Russell Wilson has taken a lot of first-team snaps this week.”
Parlay: Chargers (-2.5) at Cardinals; Panthers (+8) at Commanders; Rams (-6.5) vs. Raiders
The Chargers’ standout defense will probably shut down a Cardinals’ offense that might be without Marvin Harrison Jr., who’s currently in the concussion protocol. The Raiders could roll over against the Rams after trading Adams to the Jets. And I’m backing the Panthers because Esposito mentioned that the sharps have been taking them at +8 points.
Survivor Pool: Colts (-148) vs. Dolphins
Welp, my survivor pool run ended last week when I foolishly trusted the Titans to handle business at home against the Colts. That’s what happens when you trust Levis, which the Titans have learned the hard way this season. Seems a bit silly to continue this category now that I have been eliminated, but I’ll keep it going for a few more weeks. Perhaps there are people out there who wisely didn’t take my advice on the Titans last week.
Let’s go with the Colts against the struggling offense of the Miami Dolphins. It might not matter which quarterback starts for Indianapolis because Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson are capable of getting by the Tua-less Dolphins.
Best Over/Under Total: Ravens-Buccaneers (over 49.5, -110)
Expect many points in Tampa Bay when these two high-scoring offenses meet for. Mayfield and the Buccaneers dropped 51 points and 594 total yards in last week’s win against the New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers average 29.7 points per game, ranking second in the league, behind only the Lions (30.2) The Ravens aren’t too far behind, averaging 29.5 points per game for fourth in the NFL.
Also, the over hit 11 times last week during the 14 games.
