The good news is I didn't go 3-12 with my Road to 272 Bets this week like I did last week. The bad news is, we took another step in the wrong direction. It's been a rough NFL season for yours truly and a great season for anyone who takes my picks and bets the opposite.
With that being said, there's no better time to go hot than the week of Thanksgiving, so that's exactly what I'm going to try to do. I have my bets locked in for all 16 games this week, including the three games on Thursday and the one on Friday. Let's dive into them.
Road to 272 Bets Week 12 Record
7-7 (-0.68 units)
Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record
74-103-1 (-27.57 units)NFL Week 13 Best Bets for Every GamePackers vs. Lions Prediction
The Thanksgiving Day slate of games will begin with a classic NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Not only is this a battle between two longtime rivals, but it also has huge implications for the NFC North race.
I'm surprised to see the total in this game is set at this high a number. Usually, these high totals are reserved for games that include two elite offenses and two average-at-best defenses, when in reality, the two defenses in this game are just as good as the offenses. The Lions' defense ranks sixth in DVOA, and the Packers' defense ranks ninth. The Packers have also allowed the second fewest yards per play at 4.6, and the Lions are ninth at 5.1. Green Bay also has the fifth-best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing only 18.4 points per game.
This total is a couple of points too high in my opinion, give me the UNDER.
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Prediction
I'm not ready to buy in on the Cowboys. I understand they've been better defensively since the trade deadline, but a win against the Las Vegas Raiders and the Philadelphia Eagles with some offensive issues isn't enough for me to buy all in on this team. Meanwhile, I believe the Chiefs are underrated in the betting market for the first time in a long time. While their record isn't nearly as good as last season, the Chiefs' underlying metrics are significantly better, including ranking fifth in overall DVOA and 11th in Net Yards per Play, both of which are far better than they ranked last season.
Let's not forget how bad the Cowboys' secondary has been. They rank 27th in opponent dropback success rate and 26th in opponent dropback EPA. They've also allowed the second-most yards per pass attempt at 7.3. The Chiefs have only faced one defense this season that ranks in the bottom 10 in that stat. It was the Commanders' back on Oct. 27, and the Chiefs won 28-7 behind 299 passing yards by Patrick Mahomes.
This is quietly a great matchup for the Chiefs. I'll lay the field goal on them in Dallas.
Bengals vs. Ravens Prediction
The Ravens are on a five-game win streak, but wins against the Bears, Dolphins, Vikings, Browns, and Jets don't tell us a whole lot about how good this team is, especially given the fact that they failed to cover against both the Browns and Jets. Lamar Jackson hasn't been himself either. He hasn't had a completion percentage better than 58.6% over his last three games, hasn't reached 200 yards through the air, and has combined for just 71 rushing yards since coming back from injury.
Joe Burrow is expected to return for the Bengals, and while they won't have Tee Higgins, a fresh Ja'Marr Chase will be ready to go after his one-week suspension. I'm not going to tell you the Bengals win this game, but with it being over that magic number of seven, I'll take the points with Cincinnati in this AFC North showdown.
Bears vs. Eagles Prediction
I guess I'm going down with the "Bears are frauds" ship. They're this year's version of the Chiefs from last year, where they continue to have late-game variance go their way, finding new ways to win every week despite being on the bottom half of the NFL in virtually every metric. The Bears are currently 20th in net yards per play (-0.4) and 22nd in DVOA. Their defensive metrics are also amongst the worst in the league, including 25th in opponent success rate.
There's no hiding from the fact that the Eagles' offense has struggled of late, but now they get to take on a bad Bears defense and one that struggles to stop the run. If there's a defense the Eagles can find their stride against, it's the Bears.
Let's also admit the Eagles' defense, which has been one of the best in the league of late, is going to put Caleb Williams in a blender. Williams is 27th in the NFL in expected points added plus completions percentage over expected, one spot below Michael Penix Jr. and one spot above Bryce Young.
It's time to sell your Bears stock.
Texans vs. Colts Prediction
I think it's time to sell some stock in the Indianapolis Colts. The play of Daniel Jones has been concerning of late, and they can only do so much by running the football. He has fourth in EPA+CPOE through the first five weeks, but has been 11th in that metric since Week 6. Their offense is still good enough to produce at a high level against poor defenses, but now they have to take on arguably the best defense in the league.
The Texans' defense ranks second in opponent EPA per play, third in opponent success rate, third in opponent yards per play, and second in defensive DVOA. That good of a defense has a chance to wreak havoc against Jones.
C.J. Stroud is also expected to start this week, and he'll get to face a regressing Colts defense that has not been as good as it was early in the season. All signs point toward the Texans at least covering this spread on Sunday.
49ers vs. Browns Prediction
We all know the Cleveland defense is an elite unit, but they play at another level when on their home field. They lead the league in opponent yards per play, giving up just 4.1 yards per snap. They're also third in opponent EPA per play, second in opponent success rate, and third in defensive DVOA.
I'm still not sure about the 49ers' defense. They're dealing with injuries and have given up some monster yardage to opposing teams the past few weeks. The discrepancy between the two defenses in this game is going to make it hard for the 49ers to win by a touchdown or more on the road in Cleveland in this one.
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The Buccaneers might just be a broken football team. Not only is Baker Mayfield now nursing an injury, but they have a net yards per play of -2.5 over their last three games, which is the worst mark in the NFL in that stretch by -0.4. Their EPA and success rate numbers have also dropped to the bottom half of the NFL.
The Cardinals aren't a good team by any stretch, but Jacoby Brissett has played well enough that he should be able to take advantage of a bad Buccaneers' secondary that has allowed teams to torch them in recent weeks.
In a game between two teams trending down, I'll take the side that's getting 3.5 points.
Saints vs. Dolphins Prediction
The Dolphins enter this game off their BYE after wins against the Commanders and Bills, but that has caused the public perception of this team to be inflated. They are still, by most metrics, one of the worst teams in the NFL, including ranking 24th in overall DVOA. What is going to hurt them even more is that their biggest offensive strength will go up against the biggest strength of the Saints. 37.56% of the Dolphins' offensive yards gained come from running the football, the eighth-highest mark in the league. Now, they'll face a Saints defense that allows just 4.0 yards per carry while ranking sixth in opponent rush EPA and 11th in opponent rush success rate.
If the Saints can stop the run, they're going to have the ability to keep this game close against a Dolphins' defense that has consistently been a bottom-10 unit all season.
Rams vs. Panthers Prediction
I'm ready to say the Los Angeles Rams are the best team in the NFL, and there's no other team at their level. They rank first in both offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA, while also ranking fifth in Net Yards per Play, fifth in EPA per play, and first in opponent EPA per play. They can steamroll any team they face, especially a Panthers' team whose metrics have been in the bottom 10 of the league despite their okay record.
I won't hesitate to lay the points with Los Angeles in this game.
Falcons vs. Jets Prediction
The Falcons proved last week that they don't belong in the bottom tier of the NFL. Sure, they've lost some close games and likely have no shot at making the playoffs, but the fact that they're just 2.5-point favorites against the lowly Jets is offensive to us Falcons fans. The Falcons are 19th in total DVOA and 12th in net yards per play. That's not to excuse the losses they've suffered this season, but I do believe that they have a skill and talent advantage over the league's basement dwellers, including the Jets. It's worth noting Kirk Cousins had a solid performance last week, even with no Drake London in the lineup.
The Jets have no answer at the quarterback position and have become a one-dimensional offense. They may sneak out a win against fellow basement dwellers, but let's admit the Falcons rank a tier above them and are deserving of a bet as long as the spread stays below the magic number of three.
Jaguars vs. Titans Prediction
The Titans showed something last week against the Seahawks. They showed fight late in the game, crawling their way back to a backdoor cover. Now, they get to host a divisional opponent in the Jacksonville Jaguars, who some would argue are lucky to be 7-4 at this point in the season. The Jags are 15th in offensive DVOA, 20th in defensive DVOA, and 16th in net yards per play. Their secondary is also 25th in opponent dropback success rate, which could open things up for Cam Ward.
Trevor Lawrence's poor play is eventually going to lead the Jaguars to lose a game against an inferior opponent. He's 32nd in the NFL in EPA+CPOE, which is one spot below Joe Flacco and one spot above Justin Fields. On the road against a divisional opponent could end up being the one he loses.
Vikings vs. Seahawks Prediction
Sam Darnold has struggled this season when under pressure, specifically when he sees pressure up the middle. That's exactly what the Vikings can do defensively, and if there's any team that knows how to exploit Darnold's weaknesses, it's his former coach, Kevin O'Connell.
With that in mind, I don't have any interest in backing a Vikings team led by J.J. McCarthy, who has been a historically bad quarterback this season, ranking in the bottom five in QB efficiency over the past 10 years. Let's fade both quarterbacks in this game, and bet the UNDER.
Raiders vs. Chargers Prediction
I know the Raiders have wins over the Patriots and Titans, but I'm ready to announce them as the worst team in the NFL. Not only do they have little talent or skill, especially on offense, but they have seemingly given up on the season. They're 31st in DVOA and 27th in net yards per play. Their offense is last in EPA per play and 30th in success rate. Their defense has some redeeming qualities at times, but they're not good enough to carry a team like a Browns defense is.
The Chargers should feel a bit fresh off their BYE. I would have my doubts laying many points on the Chargers against any competent team in the NFL because I think their metrics are the definition of average, but they should have no problem cruising past the Raiders.
Bills vs. Steelers Prediction
The Bills' offense remains one of the few elite units in the NFL, but their defense has cost them already this season, and they'll continue to allow opponents to stay in games they have no business staying in. The Bills are sixth in offensive DVOA but 21st in defensive DVOA. Their defense also can't stop the run, which is bad news against the Steelers' run-first offense.
As bad as their defense is, it's tough to bet against Josh Allen as well. The move to make for Bills games moving forward may just be to bet the OVER and hope the Bills continue to be all offense and no defense.
Broncos vs. Commanders Prediction
The Broncos are a completely different team when on the road compared to at home. Their net yards per play drop from +1.2 at home to +0.5 on the road. Their offense keeps them from being able to run away and create separation from their opponents. They're 16th in the league in EPA per play and 29th in success rate. Only the Raiders, Titans, and Browns rank worse in success rate than the Broncos.
That causes me to hesitate to lay the 6.5 points on the Broncos when they hit the road to take on a Commanders team whose offense has still managed to move the ball, even when Jayden Daniels doesn't play. You might be surprised to find out they're 13th in EPA per play and sixth in success rate, behind only the Rams, Colts, 49ers, Chiefs, and Packers. Marcus Mariota is 13th in EPA+CPOE, which is just one spot below Jared Goff this season.
This game may end up being closer than people think.
Giants vs. Patriots Prediction
The New York Giants might be an OVER machine with Jameis Winston at quarterback. He threw deep early and often against the Lions, leading to a high-scoring affair. The Giants' offense now ranks 12th in EPA per play, just below the Patriots, who come in at seventh in that metric. Winston could have another strong game when he takes on a Patriots' defense that ranks 21st in opponent dropback success rate, despite having by far the easiest schedule in the NFL.
New England should be able to torch a Giants' defense that has been one of the worst in the league, especially when it comes to stopping the run.
This is a prime-time showdown between two teams whose offenses are far better than their defenses. Bet the OVER.
