We're officially in the final stretch of the Road to 272 Bets. With BYE weeks now in the rearview mirror, we have four weeks of 16 games each left to make the most of the 2024 NFL regular season.
Unfortunately, Week 14 was the worst week we've had all season, going 4-9 for -5.36 units. That brings my season-to-date record to 101-103-4 for -8.98 units. It's now or never if I want to make a push to get the record back in the green by the end of the season. The Road to 272 is in real danger of having a second losing season in the five years that I've been doing it.
With that being said, I'm not ready to give up yet. Let's dive into my best bet for all 16 NFL Week 15 games.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.
NFL Week 15 Best Bets for Every GameRams vs. 49ers Prediction
The 49ers showed in Week 13 that despite their poor record this season, they're still one of the better teams the NFL has to offer. They remain a top-three team in Net Yards per Play and Brock Purdy can find a way to beat defenses no matter who he has available to throw to. Even in their loss to the Rams earlier this season, the 49ers outgained them 6.5 yards per play to 5.4.
The Rams still have some red flags, most notably their third down play. They rank in the bottom five of the NFL in third down conversion rate and Matt Stafford has statistically been nothing more than an above-average quarterback for the majority of the 2024 campaign.
I've had faith in the 49ers all season and I'm going to continue to bet on them as we enter the final stretch of the season.
Cowboys vs. Panthers Prediction
I was wrong about the Panthers getting put in their place against the Eagles last week. Maybe it's time to give them some credit, especially Bryce Young who looks more comfortable than ever. Carolina may be in a unique situation that other teams at the bottom of the standings aren't in where the vibes have to be relatively high, knowing that Young is playing significantly better and the team has given some of the best in the league all they can handle.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys' season is all but over and I have no faith in betting on Cooper Rush, who has been horrific since filling in for Dak Prescott. He ranks near the bottom of the league in almost every quarterback statistic and is significantly worse than Young since last year's No. 1 pick returned to action.
I'll take the Panthers as slight home favorites against the imploding Cowboys.
Chiefs vs. Browns Prediction
The Chiefs have shown they will find ways to win games, but they simply can't cover a spread, especially as big favorites. It makes sense when you consider how much worse they are from a metrics standpoint than their 12-1 record indicates. They rank 20th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -0.2, which is worse than the likes of the Titans and the same mark as the Miami Dolphins.
Cleveland has a better Net Yards per Play over their last three games (+0.2) than the Chiefs do over those same three games (-0.8), yet the Browns are set as significant underdogs.
Look for the Winston to Jeudy connection to get going in this game. The Chiefs rank 21st in opponent dropback EPA and 20th in opponent dropback success rate this season.
I'll take the Browns to cover the spread to cause the Chiefs to move to 0-8 ATS in their last eight games.
Dolphins vs. Texans Prediction
The Texans are in little danger of missing out on the playoffs, but there are a ton of red flags surrounding this team entering the final stretch of the season. To say C.J. Stroud has regressed this year may be an understatement. He ranks 28th amongst all quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite, two spots below Daniel Jones and just one spot above Caleb Williams. As a whole, their offense is 22nd in EPA per play and 30th in success rate.
Now, they host a Dolphins offense that continues to be elite as long as they're not being asked to play in cold weather conditions. Let's remember the Dolphins are technically still alive in the playoff race but will need to win out and get some help from other teams. There's no question in my opinion they have the far superior offense in this game so I'll ride them as underdogs in this AFC showdown.
Bengals vs. Titans Prediction
The Bengals were lucky to win and cover against the Cowboys on Monday night and now they're on a short week against a Titans team that has been much better than their record shows this season. Tennessee will enter Week 15 ranking 18th in the league in Net Yards per Play at 0.0.
It's tough to lay points on the Bengals any week. Their defense has been atrocious, even allowing the Cowboys to gain 5.5 yards per play, meaning any slight hiccup by the offense and their opponent will be in a position to win late in the game. Since Week 8, the Bengals defense is last in the league in opponent EPA and it's not particularly close. The Titans defense is 18th in that time frame.
Commanders vs. Saints Prediction
I can't justify a bet, no matter what the spread is, on the Saints without Carr. Both Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener were horrific when they played this season and now add in the fact that Taysom Hill, Chris Olave, and almost every other offensive weapon for the Saints is also out.
Now, they have to take on a rest Commanders team with a lot to play for. Despite a few hiccups at times this season, the Commanders are still third in the NFL in EPA per play and Success Rate. They should thrive against a Saints defense that allows 5.9 yards per play, the second most in the league.
This bet seems like a no-brainer.
Jets vs. Jaguars Prediction
The Jets have been horrific at times this season, but the Jaguars are at a completely different level. Over their last three games, the Jaguars have a Net Yards per Play of -1.4, the second-worst mark in the league. The Jets are significantly better, coming in at 14th at +0.1 in that same stretch.
Rodgers hasn't looked like himself, but if there's one team that will make him look like the Rodgers of old, it's the Jaguars. The Jaguars rank dead last in the league in both opponent dropback EPA and opponent yards per pass attempt (7.8). He still has enough zip on his arm to beat the Jaguars defense early and often.
It's time to bet the Jets to finally cover a spread.
Ravens vs. Giants Prediction
A 14.5-point spread is a crazy amount of points to lay on a team, but I see no other option than to do exactly that in this lopsided affair in Week 15. The Baltimore Ravens are fresh off their BYE week and will take on the Giants in a game between arguably the best and worst offenses the league has to offer.
The Ravens lead the NFL in yards per play, averaging 6.8 yards per snap, while the Giants rank 31st averaging 4.7 yards per snap. That number has been even worse in recent weeks, averaging a measly 4.3 yards per play in their last three games since they moved on from Daniel Jones, that's the last mark in the league in that time frame. Not only that, but their best chance of moving the ball is with their running back, Tyrone Tracy Jr., but the Ravens' defensive strength is their ability to stop the run, ranking third in opponent rush EPA.
This is a completely lopsided affair on both sides of the ball and with the Ravens coming into this game fresh with plenty to play for with the AFC North still up for grabs, this has all the making of a blowout.
Steelers vs. Eagles Prediction
We're back in another situation betting on a game involving the Pittsburgh Steelers. By virtually every metric you can look at, the Eagles are the superior team, but Mike Tomlin continues to get the most out of his team on a weekly basis and while you may think Philadelphia will win this game, covering a 5.5-point spread is another question.
The Steelers have arguably played some of their best football in recent weeks, ranking ninth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play over their last three games at +0.5. They also have the rare ability to slow down the rush attack of the Eagles, ranking ninth in the league in opponent yards per carry, keeping teams to just 4.3 yards per rush.
I'll take the points with Pittsburgh.
Colts vs. Broncos Prediction
I'm still not a believer in Anthony Richardson. Amongst all quarterbacks who have played at least 224 snaps this season, he ranks dead last in EPA+CPOE composite at -0.018 and 30th in adjusted EPA per play. He had one solid start against the Jets but posted two straight bad performances after that. He has now completed just 47.4% of passes this season.
Now, he and the Colts have to face a Broncos defense that leads the NFL in opponent EPA and they rank second in opponent success rate. They've also been great at stopping the run, keeping teams to averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, meaning the Colts won't just be able to rely on Jonathan Taylor to carry them to victory.
Finally, it's worth noting the Broncos have the seventh best Net Yards per Play mark at home this season at +0.8 while the Colts have a road Net Yards per Play of -0.8, the sixth-worst mark.
Bills vs. Lions Prediction
The line originally opened at Lions -3, but it has since been bet down to Lions -1.5 but I think that movement has gone a tad too far. Now, the value lies on Detroit as only a small favorite on its home field.
The Bills have been significantly worse on the road this season compared to at home. Their Net Yards per Play metric falls from +1.4 at home to -0.2 on the road.
The Lions have also had a significantly better defense all season, despite their injuries. For example, they're second in the league in opponent EPA per play while the Bills rank 10th.
One of the best aspects of the Lions is their third down offense. They rank fourth in the league in third down conversion rate, turning 45.81% of third downs into first downs. Now, they get to face a Bills defense that has struggled in that area, ranking 25th in opponent third down conversion rate (43.23%).
I'll take the Lions in this potential Super Bowl preview.
Buccaneers vs. Chargers Prediction
The Buccaneers are a team that I'm always going to lean toward the team getting the points when they play, whether it's them or their opponent. Their defense is bad enough that I don't want to lay points on them, but their offense is good enough that I don't want to lay points against them. With that in mind, I'll take the field goal with the Buccaneers on the road.
People likely know the Buccaneers offense is good, but I'm not sure they realize how good they've been. They're now fifth in the league in EPA behind only the Bills, Ravens, Commanders, and Lions. They're also fourth in success rate and fifth in yards per play (6.0).
You can't completely discount the Chargers, but it's clear their lack of weapons at skill positions has put a ceiling on their offensive production. Receivers outside of Ladd McConkey struggle to create separation and their running game has taken a hit with the injury to J.K. Dobbins. Their defense is certainly better than the Buccaneers, but that's not enough for me to lay the field goal on them.
Patriots vs. Cardinals Prediction
I have some significant concerns about Kyler Murray. Throughout his career, his play has declined as the season has progressed and we used to blame that on Kliff Kingsbury, but after his past few games, I'm starting to think it could be a Murray issue.
December has been his worst month by a significant margin, seeing drops in his completion percentage, quarterback rating, yards per attempt, and most notably, interceptions. He has thrown 20 interceptions to 27 touchdowns in December. He also has 21 fumbles in this month. That's an average of 2.05 interceptions/fumbles per game in December. That makes me hesitant to lay points on him and the Cardinals as they face a Patriots team that's fresh off a BYE week.
I'll take the points with New England.
Packers vs. Seahawks Prediction
The Packers' metrics make them a "good but not great" team and there are some red flags I see that could indicate they're due for a touch of regression. One of the most glaring is their success rate numbers. They're 28th in opponent success rate and dead last in the NFL in opponent dropback success rate. Offensively, they're just 16th in offensive success rate.
Now, they're laying a field goal on the road against a Seahawks team that's trending in the right direction. Their defense has been a top-10 unit since Week 8 and they're starting to get some consistency on the offensive line.
I don't think there's a significant edge on either side in this one, but I feel more comfortable taking the field goal's worth of points on the home team.
Bears vs. Vikings Prediction
The Bears are downright abysmal and even they were immune to the usual bump teams get when they fire their head coach. They're now dead last in the league in Net Yards per Play (-1.4) which is -0.4 worse than the next worst team. They've been even worse in that metric lately, sporting a Net Yards per Play of -2.0 over their last three games.
The Bears were able to take the Vikings to overtime in their previous meeting but let's remember the Vikings outgained Chicago 7.0 to 5.5 yards per play. If a similar result occurs in Week 15, the Vikings will likely win and cover this 6.5-point spread.
This defense is going to be too much for the Bears offense to handle. I feel comfortable laying the points with Minnesota.
Falcons vs. Raiders Prediction
The Falcons have been horrific of late, but now is the time to finally buy low on them. They have played a gauntlet of good teams lately, but specifically a gauntlet of great defenses in the Vikings, Chargers, and Broncos. They finally get to play a bad team and more importantly, a bad defense in the Raiders. Depending on who plays quarterback for them, this could also be a game against their former quarterback, Desmond Ridder.
The Falcons still have some respectable metrics including ranking 12th in Net Yards per Play at +0.2 and eighth in offensive success rate. Even in recent losses, they've been outplaying their opponents but have fallen to costly turnovers and penalties. Those are the types of things they can't overcome against good teams, but won't be enough to keep them from overwhelming bad teams like the Raiders.
Las Vegas enters Week 15 ranking dead last in the NFL in EPA per Play and if Ridder gets the start, expect them to be even worse than usual.
It's now or never for Kirk Cousins and Atlanta and I think it's time they finally play as well as we've seen at times early in the season.
